North Carolina Predictive Analytics in Supervision Effort (NC-PASE)

The Second Chance Act, signed into law on April 9, 2008, provides a comprehensive response to the increasing number of people who are released from prison and jail and returning to communities, including resources to address the myriad needs of these offenders to achieve a successful return to their communities. As a complement to the Second Chance Act programs, the fiscal year (FY) 2017 Smart Supervision Program (SSP) seeks to improve probation and parole success rates and reduce the number of crimes committed by those under probation and parole supervision, which would in turn reduce admissions to prisons and jails and save taxpayer dollars. Funds can be used either to implement evidence-based supervision strategies or to innovate new strategies to improve outcomes for supervisees.

BJA’s “Smart Suite” of programs invest in the development of practitioner-researcher partnerships that use data, evidence, and innovation to create strategies and interventions that are effective and economical. This data-driven approach enables jurisdictions to understand the full nature and extent of the crime challenges they are facing and to target resources to the highest priorities. The Smart Suite of programs, which includes the Smart Supervision Program, represents a strategic approach that brings more “science” into criminal justice operations by leveraging innovative applications of analysis, technology, and evidence-based practices with the goal of improving performance and effectiveness while containing costs.

The goals of this program are to develop and test innovative strategies to implement evidence-based probation and parole approaches that improve supervision success rates, thereby increasing community safety, and reduce violent and other crime by effectively addressing individuals’ risk and needs and reducing recidivism.

The recipient will utilize grant funds to administer the NC Predictive Analytics Supervision Effort (NC-PASE), designed to use existing agency data to conduct predictive analytics. The program will identify profiles within the high to moderate risk population and build Strategic Supervision Guidelines (SSG), or tailored supervision practices, for different risk profiles in different geographic areas within risk levels. NC-PASE’s goals include: 1) reduce recidivism through utilization of risk-specific SSG; 2) develop predictive models to identify early warning signs of noncompliance leading to failure on supervision; 3) develop SSG for different risk profiles that embrace evidence based practices, respond to risk levels, and use different types of interventions specific to rural, semi-urban, and urban areas; 4) maximize positive outcomes by ensuring that criminogenic needs are addressed; and 5) objectively evaluate the impact of NC-PASE on recidivism. The grantee will use the SSG with at least 20,000 moderate to high risk offenders.

CA/NCF